Yes, it really happened. I talked to Lyn Alden, one of the (if not simply THE) sharpest minds in the investing community, and I was allowed to record and publish my call with her. So, I got the chance to ask Lyn about gold, crypto, commodities, inflation, deflation, the Biden tax, her macro outlook for 2021 & beyond and I even slipped in a few personal questions to get to know Lyn Alden better.
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Summarised, in this interview, I and Lyn Alden talked about gold, crypto, commodities, inflation the Biden tax, Lyn Alden’s macro outlook for 2021 & Beyond and some other topics.
I started the interview with a few personal questions for Lyn Alden, where she told me that she used to be in martial arts, and was even a martial arts coach at one point in her career.
However, after suffering a few injuries (including a broken leg and a broken thumb) she decided to venture into a more peaceful side of the sport world. She now enjoys traveling, walking, biking & swimming.
Lyn Alden told me she hasn’t been doing much of any of those, though, since 2020, because of her devotion and focus going 120% for her work, for which I think we all should be thankful.
After that, I went on to ask Lyn Alden where she thinks money is going within the market space.
The flow of money within the market is very important to understand as it gives you an idea of what people are doing.
Lyn Alden answered that question by saying that the broad money supply (M3 money supply) has increased drastically in the U.S. (about 20%) in 2020 alone. So, that money goes in things that are perceived as scarce. Investments could be those things in some cases, according to Lyn Alden.
When I asked her what she thinks actually moves the markets, in terms of emotions, she said that it’s “a little bit of both” – referring to both greed & fear.
Lyn started talking about future outlooks so that gave me the chance to ask her about the Biden tax. Her answer was a little too complex to summarise here but what I found the most-important part in that answer was her focusing on how probable such a tax increase is. The probability of the Biden tax passing through the house & the senate might be lower than you think.
Continuing, I also got the chance to ask Lyn Alden about her focus going forward. I was wondering whether she would chose commodities over equities and gold over crypto. However, she gave me a much better answer, saying that her portfolio is very broadly diversified across the globe. She didn’t want to make herself too dependant on 1 market alone. I think there is a lot of value in what she said there, and I can write a whole piece on why simple mortals (like myself) can’t afford to only have their eggs in “a few baskets that they watch closely”.
After that, I had the chance to talk to Lyn Alden about the possibility of the markets returning to a more normal level. We concluded that there’s basically 2 ways that can happen and that is either by inflation or by growth in the real and/or nominal GDP. This was definitely an interesting part of the interview, where Lyn said that the market might probably go back to these levels by “a death by 1000 cuts”. Meaning, a little bit of inflation, a little bit of nominal growth, a little bit of increasing M3 money supply and a little bit of real GDP growth, combined with a couple of other happenings.
Lyn Alden said that this could be the commodity decade, where we see commodities outperforming equities, which is the opposite of what happened in the last decade.
Lyn Alden thinks that crypto currencies, including Bitcoin, are a different beast that is not easily compared to other assets. She expects crypto to perform well and depending on the time horizon, maybe even outperform commodities and equities.
Lyn Alden told me she likes gold, but likes gold miners better. She also likes gold royalty companies better than physical gold or gold miners, for as far as I understand it.
I closed off the interview by talking about diversifying between different currencies, where I would hold my commodities and my equities in different currencies to add diversification and even improve my potential returns.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Summary
01:30 The Lyn Alden Behind the Analyst
04:50 Where is money going within the markets?
09:50 What is moving the markets?
13:30 The Biden Tax
18:10 What is Lyn Alden’s main focus now?
20:40 Inflation vs Roaring 20’s
27:00 The market is priced, why?
31:20 Commodities to outperform equities
34:15 Commodity companies Lyn Alden likes
38:30 Crypto to outperform commodities?
41:45 Currency diversification worth it?
47:16 More about Lyn Alden
I am thankful to everyone for making this happen and to Lyn Alden for coming on. This is not financial advice nor a call to action. Do your own research. Read the full disclaimer in the pinned comment.