Dollar weak, commodities strong and equities tired!

In this week’s Macro Insight I discussed…

US bond yields moved lower even as retail sales, jobless claims and business sentiment all came in higher than expectations. Is all the good news already priced in?

VIX staged a bounce after April options expiry after reaching low levels, however, realised remains low so spike may be short lived.

One of my favourite sign of market exhaustion, bearish momentum divergences are appearing across a bunch of major indices. Taking profit on tactical longs or stock replacement makes sense here.

Fairly quiet on the macro this week. We do also have more earning releases from the likes of JNJ, Netflix, Amex and Daimler.

As yields have retreated, the DXY has traded down toward 91, which is key support for the uptrend since the start of 2021. EURGBP short into ECB makes sense to us as European yields will likely be talked down on Thursday.

Gold broke above key resistance at 1765, taking it into neutral territory. We covered shorts and wait for cues from the dollar and real yields. Copper has resumed its uptrend after holding above 50d MA and on the back of strong demand fundamentals as outlined by GS in a recent report. Positioning also seems cleaner in Copper suggesting the rally could have legs.

Filmed on on Tuesday 20th April 2021.

Chapters:
00:00​ Introduction
02:41 Yields lower despite strong data
05:48 VIX bounces off oversold levels
08:12 Bearish momentum divergences
12:17 Coming up this week
13:18 Dollar uptrend at risk
16:26 Gold and Copper

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One thought on “Dollar weak, commodities strong and equities tired!

  1. I like what you're doing. Don't totally understand it (yet) but I'll keep watching. Friendly suggestion… you need a better microphone (or it needs to be closer). Better sound quality will increase your views/subs. Thanks for your work.

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